Peer reviewed: Yes. Authors: Whiteford, Harvey and Bagheri, Nasser and Diminic, Sandra and Enticott, Joanne and Gao, Caroline X and Hamilton, Matthew and Hickie, Ian and Le, Long K and Lee, Yong Y and Long, Katrina M and McGorry, Patrick and Meadows, Graham and Mihalopoulos, Cathrine and Occhipinti, Jo-An and Rock, Daniel and Rosenberg, Sebastian and Salvador-Carulla, Luis and Skinner, Adam. Publication: PsyArXiv Year: 2023 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/00048674231172113 Method: Descriptive overview of the role of modelling in mental health policy and system design, explanation of concepts useful for understanding mental health modelling and overview of how ta new network of modellers and planners hopes to support the development of better and more useful mental health systems models.
Sound Decision Making in Uncertain Times: Can Systems Modelling Be Useful for Informing Policy and Planning for Suicide Prevention?
Peer reviewed: Yes Authors: Occhipinti, Jo-An and Rose, Danya and Skinner, Adam and Rock, Daniel and Song, Yun Ju C. and Prodan, Ante and Rosenberg, Sebastian and Freebairn, Louise and Vacher, Catherine and Hickie, Ian B. Publication: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. Year: 2022 DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19031468 Method: A systems dynamics model for Western Australia was run for multiple competing scenarios. Message: Systems models can inform robust decision making despite uncertainty about the trajectories of population mental health outcomes.
Peer reviewed: Yes Authors: Occhipinti, Jo-An and Skinner, Adam and Doraiswamy, P. Murali and Fox, Cameron and Herrman, Helen and Saxena, Shekhar and London, Elisha and Song, Yun Ju Christine and Hickie, Ian B. Publication: Nature. Year: 2021 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-02581-9 Method: Commentary. Message: Systems modelling has potential to assist global decision-makers to make proactive economic, social, public health, and health system investments to arrest the COVID pandemic’s impacts on mental health.
Peer reviewed: Yes Authors: Skinner, Adam and Occhipinti, Jo-An and Song, Yun Ju Christine and Hickie, Ian B. Publication: BJPsych Open. Year: 2021 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1192/bjo.2021.989 Method: A systems dynamics model for 10 Primary Health Networks (PHNs) in New South Wales that serve regions that vary in terms of population size, geographic area, population density, levels of disadvantage and suicide rates. Message: There is potential for substantial variation in projected reductions in suicide mortality if implementing a standardised state-based suicide prevention strategy versus a regionally driven approach.
Federal and state cooperation necessary but not sufficient for effective regional mental health systems: insights from systems modelling and simulation
Peer reviewed: Yes Authors: Occhipinti, Jo-An and Skinner, Adam and Carter, Samantha and Heath, Jacinta and Lawson, Kenny and McGill, Katherine and McClure, Rod and Hickie, Ian B. Publication: Scientific Reports. Year: 2021 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-90762-x Method: A system dynamics model of pathways between psychological distress, the mental health care system, suicidal behaviour and their drivers was developed, tested, and validated for a large, geographically diverse region of New South Wales; the Hunter New England and Central Coast Primary Health Network.
Reducing youth suicide: systems modelling and simulation to guide targeted investments across the determinants
Peer reviewed: Yes. Authors: Occhipinti, Jo-An and Skinner, Adam and Iorfino, Frank and Lawson, Kenny and Sturgess, Julie and Burgess, Warren and Davenport, Tracey and Hudson, Danica and Hickie, Ian. Publication: BMC Medicine. Year: 2021 DOI: https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12916-021-01935-4 Method: Using a participatory approach, and informed by a range of national, state, and local datasets, a system dynamics model was developed, tested, and validated for a regional population catchment. The model incorporated defined pathways from social determinants of mental health to psychological distress, mental health care, and suicidal behaviour.
Peer reviewed: Yes. Authors: Atkinson, Jo-An and Song, Yun Ju Christine and Merikangas, Kathleen R and Skinner, Adam and Prodan, Ante and Iorfino, Frank and Freebairn, Louise and Rose, Danya and Ho, Nicholas and Crouse, Jacob and Zipunnikov, Vadim and Hickie, Ian. Publication: Frontiers in Psychiatry. Year: 2020 DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2020.606035 Method: Editorial. Message: Applications of systems modeling in mental health research and practice have already demonstrated value in providing improved decision support capability and a better understanding of the different ways even “evidence-based” interventions can play out in diverse systems and settings.
The National Mental Health Service Planning Framework: Where has it come from and what is its future?
Peer reviewed: Yes. Authors: Whiteford, Harvey and Diminic, Sandra. Publication: Australian and New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry Year: 2020 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0004867420963723 Method: Descriptive account of the background and application of the National Mental Health Service Planning Framework. Message: Decentralised regional planning requires the application of a planning framework that sets targets for the same level of care for all Australians with equivalent needs, accounting for the specific characteristics and needs of local populations and the existing services and barriers to care.
Systems modelling and simulation to inform strategic decision making for suicide prevention in rural New South Wales (Australia)
Peer reviewed: Yes. Authors: Atkinson, Jo-An and Skinner, Adam and Hackney, Sue and Mason, Linda and Heffernan, Mark and Currier, Dianne and King, Kylie and Pirkis, Jane. Publication: Australian and New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry. Year 2020 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0004867420932639 Method: A system dynamics model for the rural and remote population catchment of Western New South Wales was developed. The model was based on defined pathways to mental health care and suicidal behaviour and reproduced historic trends in the incidence of attempted suicide (self-harm hospitalisations) and suicide deaths in the region.
Peer reviewed: Yes. Authors: Atkinson, Jo-An and Page, Andrew and Skinner, Adam and Heffernan, Mark and Prodan, Ante and Hickie, Ian B. Publication: Frontiers in Psychiatry. Year: 2019 DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2019.00448 Method: A systems dynamics model was developed for Western Sydney Primary Health Network. Message: Study findings suggest that i) not all reductions to psychiatric beds will result in increases in suicide deaths; ii) a threshold appears to exist beyond which cuts are likely to adversely impact suicides; and iii) the threshold can be significantly increased by strengthening community-based mental health services capacity.